체스 레이팅 별 가장 높은 승률 오프닝

lichess database를 활용해서 각 레이팅별 가장 높은 승률의 오프닝, 가장 승률이 낮은 오프닝을 알아보자.

lichess database 기준 대략 74만개의 게임을 분석.

하위 레이팅 1200 ~ 1800, 중위 레이팅 1900 ~ 2400, 상위 레이팅 2500~ 로 설정하고 각 레이팅 별로 어떤 오프닝이 가장 인기있는지 알아보자.

하위 레이팅

most_count

	white	draw	black	count
Van't Kruijs Opening	909	40	737	1686
Scandinavian Defense	607	42	583	1232
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation	705	25	275	1005
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack	592	22	378	992
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation	471	33	359	863
Horwitz Defense	440	23	287	750
Bishop's Opening	411	12	226	649
Queen's Pawn Game #2	361	20	266	647
Philidor Defense #2	371	26	247	644
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation	326	21	283	630

most_win_white

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation	705	25	275	1005	0.701493	0.0248756	0.273632
Philidor Defense #3	386	12	162	560	0.689286	0.0214286	0.289286
Scotch Game	393	19	203	615	0.639024	0.0308943	0.330081
Bishop's Opening	411	12	226	649	0.633282	0.01849	0.348228
Modern Defense	321	16	175	512	0.626953	0.03125	0.341797
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack	592	22	378	992	0.596774	0.0221774	0.381048
French Defense: Knight Variation	311	16	203	530	0.586792	0.0301887	0.383019
Horwitz Defense	440	23	287	750	0.586667	0.0306667	0.382667
Philidor Defense #2	371	26	247	644	0.576087	0.0403727	0.38354
Queen's Pawn Game #2	361	20	266	647	0.55796	0.0309119	0.411128

most_draw

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
Philidor Defense #2	371	26	247	644	0.576087	0.0403727	0.38354
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation	471	33	359	863	0.545771	0.0382387	0.415991
Scandinavian Defense	607	42	583	1232	0.492695	0.0340909	0.473214
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation	326	21	283	630	0.51746	0.0333333	0.449206
Modern Defense	321	16	175	512	0.626953	0.03125	0.341797
Queen's Pawn Game #2	361	20	266	647	0.55796	0.0309119	0.411128
Scotch Game	393	19	203	615	0.639024	0.0308943	0.330081
Horwitz Defense	440	23	287	750	0.586667	0.0306667	0.382667
French Defense: Knight Variation	311	16	203	530	0.586792	0.0301887	0.383019
Sicilian Defense	253	14	264	531	0.47646	0.0263653	0.497175

most_win_black

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
Sicilian Defense	253	14	264	531	0.47646	0.0263653	0.497175
Scandinavian Defense	607	42	583	1232	0.492695	0.0340909	0.473214
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation	326	21	283	630	0.51746	0.0333333	0.449206
Van't Kruijs Opening	909	40	737	1686	0.539146	0.0237248	0.437129
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation	471	33	359	863	0.545771	0.0382387	0.415991
Queen's Pawn Game #2	361	20	266	647	0.55796	0.0309119	0.411128
Philidor Defense #2	371	26	247	644	0.576087	0.0403727	0.38354
French Defense: Knight Variation	311	16	203	530	0.586792	0.0301887	0.383019
Horwitz Defense	440	23	287	750	0.586667	0.0306667	0.382667
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack	592	22	378	992	0.596774	0.0221774	0.381048

중위 레이팅

most_count

	white	draw	black	count
Van't Kruijs Opening	4574	315	5771	10660
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation	4771	301	2865	7937
Horwitz Defense	4019	224	3084	7327
Modern Defense	3529	229	3432	7190
Owen Defense	3667	221	3297	7185
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack	2966	191	3465	6622
Sicilian Defense	2683	205	3411	6299
French Defense: Knight Variation	3071	193	3016	6280
Philidor Defense #3	3600	194	2429	6223
Queen's Pawn Game #2	2910	217	2577	5704

most_win_white

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
King's Pawn	1334	3	55	1392	0.958333	0.00215517	0.0395115
King's Pawn Game: Damiano Defense	819	34	321	1174	0.697615	0.0289608	0.273424
King's Knight Opening	856	32	372	1260	0.679365	0.0253968	0.295238
King's Pawn Game: Nimzowitsch Defense	335	16	156	507	0.66075	0.0315582	0.307692
Mikenas Defense	440	21	215	676	0.650888	0.0310651	0.318047
Queen's Gambit	337	16	167	520	0.648077	0.0307692	0.321154
King's Gambit Accepted, King's Knight Gambit	667	23	349	1039	0.641963	0.0221367	0.3359
Center Game #2	586	22	311	919	0.63765	0.0239391	0.338411
Queen's Pawn Game: Levitsky Attack	714	41	379	1134	0.62963	0.0361552	0.334215
King's Gambit Accepted, MacLeod Defense	713	33	399	1145	0.622707	0.028821	0.348472

most_win_draw

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation	236	34	312	582	0.405498	0.0584192	0.536082
Colle System	268	29	260	557	0.481149	0.0520646	0.466786
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation	218	27	279	524	0.416031	0.0515267	0.532443
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order	378	34	289	701	0.53923	0.0485021	0.412268
Slav Defense	455	46	451	952	0.477941	0.0483193	0.473739
Kadas Opening	194	25	301	520	0.373077	0.0480769	0.578846
English Opening: Symmetrical Variation	251	24	229	504	0.498016	0.047619	0.454365
Pirc Defense #5	548	47	429	1024	0.535156	0.0458984	0.418945
Franco-Benoni Defense	251	24	260	535	0.469159	0.0448598	0.485981
Zukertort Opening: Sicilian Invitation	332	28	270	630	0.526984	0.0444444	0.428571

most_win_black

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
?	589	1	2270	2860	0.205944	0.00034965	0.793706
King's Pawn Game	622	64	1078	1764	0.352608	0.0362812	0.611111
Center Game: Normal Variation	472	30	785	1287	0.366744	0.02331	0.609946
Kadas Opening	194	25	301	520	0.373077	0.0480769	0.578846
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit #2	779	64	1075	1918	0.406152	0.0333681	0.56048
French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System	355	22	475	852	0.416667	0.0258216	0.557512
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack	414	40	557	1011	0.409496	0.0395648	0.55094
French Defense #2	1152	87	1491	2730	0.421978	0.0318681	0.546154
Sicilian Defense	2683	205	3411	6299	0.425941	0.0325448	0.541515
Van't Kruijs Opening	4574	315	5771	10660	0.429081	0.0295497	0.54137

상위 레이팅

most_count

	white	draw	black	count
Van't Kruijs Opening	2101	168	2772	5041
Modern Defense	2415	167	2383	4965
Caro-Kann Defense	2008	203	2431	4642
Horwitz Defense	2024	162	1811	3997
Owen Defense	2061	148	1672	3881
Sicilian Defense	1280	138	2004	3422
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation	1708	170	1543	3421
French Defense: Knight Variation	1381	150	1786	3317
Queen's Pawn	1651	113	1132	2896
Hungarian Opening	1148	77	1313	2538

most_win_white

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
King's Pawn	958	2	21	981	0.976555	0.00203874	0.0214067
Philidor Defense	337	18	149	504	0.668651	0.0357143	0.295635
Queen's Gambit Refused: Marshall Defense	586	46	346	978	0.599182	0.0470348	0.353783
Queen's Pawn	1651	113	1132	2896	0.570097	0.0390193	0.390884
Slav Defense: Three Knights Variation	304	25	207	536	0.567164	0.0466418	0.386194
Rat Defense: Small Center Defense	407	28	287	722	0.563712	0.0387812	0.397507
English Opening: Great Snake Variation	343	35	240	618	0.555016	0.0566343	0.38835
Queen's Gambit Accepted	354	29	256	639	0.553991	0.0453834	0.400626
French Defense: Normal Variation	765	67	552	1384	0.552746	0.0484104	0.398844
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation	360	42	252	654	0.550459	0.0642202	0.385321

most_win_draw

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
Queen's Pawn Game: London System	225	46	271	542	0.415129	0.0848708	0.5
French Defense: Exchange Variation	751	135	846	1732	0.433603	0.0779446	0.488453
English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Queen's Knight Variation	269	37	224	530	0.507547	0.0698113	0.422642
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation	204	36	305	545	0.374312	0.066055	0.559633
Sicilian Defense: Loewenthal Variation	269	38	275	582	0.462199	0.0652921	0.472509
Queen's Pawn Game: Mason Attack	394	53	376	823	0.478736	0.0643985	0.456865
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation	491	68	499	1058	0.464083	0.0642722	0.471645
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation	360	42	252	654	0.550459	0.0642202	0.385321
Zukertort Opening: Queen's Gambit Invitation	385	50	349	784	0.491071	0.0637755	0.445153
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation	1047	135	970	2152	0.486524	0.0627323	0.450743

most_win_black

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
?	362	4	1909	2275	0.159121	0.00175824	0.839121
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit #2	233	13	412	658	0.354103	0.0197568	0.62614
French Defense #2	327	33	573	933	0.350482	0.0353698	0.614148
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack	875	103	1533	2511	0.348467	0.0410195	0.610514
Benoni Defense: Benoni Gambit Accepted	187	20	310	517	0.361702	0.0386847	0.599613
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation	403	46	641	1090	0.369725	0.0422018	0.588073
Sicilian Defense	1280	138	2004	3422	0.37405	0.0403273	0.585622
Hungarian Opening: Catalan Formation	204	20	302	526	0.387833	0.0380228	0.574144
Saragossa Opening	233	18	337	588	0.396259	0.0306122	0.573129
French Defense: La Bourdonnais Variation	551	54	790	1395	0.394982	0.0387097	0.566308

전체 레이팅

most_count

	white	draw	black	count
Van't Kruijs Opening	7584	523	9280	17387
Modern Defense	6265	412	5990	12667
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation	7184	496	4683	12363
Horwitz Defense	6483	409	5182	12074
Owen Defense	5998	381	5177	11556
Caro-Kann Defense	4860	393	5166	10419
Sicilian Defense	4216	357	5679	10252
French Defense: Knight Variation	4763	359	5005	10127
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack	4007	306	5167	9480
Scandinavian Defense	4190	293	4663	9146

most_win_white

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
King's Pawn	2351	5	85	2441	0.96313	0.00204834	0.0348218
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fried Liver Attack	373	12	121	506	0.737154	0.0237154	0.23913
Russian Game: Damiano Variation	418	16	154	588	0.710884	0.0272109	0.261905
King's Knight Opening	1195	45	485	1725	0.692754	0.026087	0.281159
King's Pawn Game: Damiano Defense	1166	59	474	1699	0.686286	0.0347263	0.278988
King's Pawn Game: Nimzowitsch Defense	448	20	211	679	0.659794	0.0294551	0.310751
Queen's Gambit	469	23	224	716	0.655028	0.0321229	0.312849
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit	379	19	190	588	0.644558	0.0323129	0.323129
Vienna Game: Vienna Gambit	323	13	175	511	0.632094	0.0254403	0.342466
King's Gambit Accepted, King's Knight Gambit	881	34	481	1396	0.631089	0.0243553	0.344556

most_win_draw

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
Queen's Pawn Game: London System	497	64	476	1037	0.479267	0.0617165	0.459016
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense	389	49	382	820	0.47439	0.0597561	0.465854
English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Queen's Knight Variation	400	45	318	763	0.524246	0.0589777	0.416776
French Defense: Exchange Variation	1570	192	1584	3346	0.469217	0.0573819	0.473401
Sicilian Defense: Canal Attack, Main Line	253	29	236	518	0.488417	0.0559846	0.455598
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation	334	42	420	796	0.419598	0.0527638	0.527638
English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Normal Variation	348	35	282	665	0.523308	0.0526316	0.42406
Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation	452	46	380	878	0.514806	0.0523918	0.432802
English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense	357	41	387	785	0.454777	0.0522293	0.492994
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation	330	35	308	673	0.490342	0.0520059	0.457652

most_win_black

	white	draw	black	count	white_rate	draw_rate	black_rate
?	975	5	4243	5223	0.186674	0.000957304	0.812368
King's Pawn Game	819	91	1491	2401	0.341108	0.0379009	0.620991
Center Game: Normal Variation	583	45	1000	1628	0.358108	0.0276413	0.614251
Ware Opening	251	29	432	712	0.352528	0.0407303	0.606742
French Defense: Advance Variation #4	248	25	413	686	0.361516	0.0364431	0.602041
Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer	197	17	313	527	0.373814	0.0322581	0.593928
French Defense: Advance Variation	302	32	471	805	0.375155	0.0397516	0.585093
Indian Game: East Indian Defense	247	16	363	626	0.394569	0.0255591	0.579872
French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System	502	42	742	1286	0.390358	0.0326594	0.576983
Kadas Opening	301	31	450	782	0.38491	0.0396419	0.575448