Nasdaq Halts Plan for Crypto Custody Service Due to US Regulatory Conditions
Interesting move from Nasdaq after the much hyped 'institutional effort' to get into crypto...
Where there's smoke there's fire?
What I mean by that is maybe the odds of spot ETF being approved aren't as high as originally thought.
Not an attempt to FUD, just deciphering an important development here contributing to the current narrative.
BTC ETF
ICYMI: US SEC ACCEPTS SIX SPOT BITCOIN ETF PROPOSALS FOR REVIEW - RTRS
Source - US SEC accepts six spot bitcoin ETF proposals for review
Kraken ETH
61k $ETH inflow is insignificant tho, given historical inflows and sell-side liquidity shortage on Kraken.
BTC Term Structure
Terms structure is at max contango (local min on the chart) on Saturdays.
Gamma sellers already knows.
Hash Ribbon
We have a Hash Ribbon capitulation.
AKA a slowing in Bitcoin's Hash Rate growth after what has been an incredible (unsustainable) 50% increase in 2023.
HR capitulation is not a sell signal, but it's also not bullish. Risk management warranted until growth resumes.
Source Tweet - Charles Edwards
BTC DXY
#BTC's inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar has significantly weakened in 2023, dropping from -61% to -10%
BTC BB
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands are the narrowest they've been since early January when the price soared 33% over a 2 week period.
CCIP
In the future, the vast majority of Web3 users won’t know what blockchain the dApp they’re using operates on
In fact, they probably won’t even know they’re using a blockchain at all
Just in the same way users have no idea what cloud provider apps like Netflix run on (or that they use cloud at all)
All of the complexity within Web3 will inevitably be abstracted away, facilitated by solutions like CCIP, account abstraction, and MPC private key custody
It will all just work
Source Tweet - ChainLinkGod.eth
US Business Bankruptcies
US business bankruptcies are at the fastest pace since 2010, per Bloomberg
SPX OPEX
$1.1T in notional $SPY/ $SPX contracts set to expire this Friday. Higher than average for a monthly OpEx, but not unusual after a large quarterly expiration.
Permits
Permits are still sequentially weak.
Large drops in permits bode ill for the broader GDP. Building permits are off their cycle highs by -26%. Housing-led recessions usually begin when this measure is around -35% suggesting we are around a recession but not in one:
Source Tweet - Prometheus Research
UK
Proportion of UK CPI sub components rising by more than 0.3% M-o-M fell sharply last month. I.e. the underlying inflation trend is v weak. Typically leads core CPI Y-o-Y by a few months.
PLUS – sterling is a crowded long. Positioning and macro align
Discover Financial
Woooof. These Discover Financial credit numbers are not pretty.
Comparing Q2 with Q1 trends⤵
Card volume slowed. Delinquencies and Charge-offs sped up.
JB Hunt
JB Hunt’s revenue down 18.4% YoY.
Company is a bellwether to the entire freight sector and would be one of the first to see a turn around in the market. If they aren’t bullish on a 2H recovery, it’s unlikely for anyone else.
NACS
TSLA Earning
$TSLA with a double beat.
"Q2-2023 was a record quarter on many levels with our best-ever production and deliveries...Our operating margin remained healthy at approximately 10%, even with price reductions in Q1 and early Q2"
NFLX
$NFLX: "Q2‘23 revenue of $8.2B & operating profit of $1.8B were generally in-line with our forecast—and we expect revenue growth to accelerate in H2 ‘23 as we start to see the full benefits of paid sharing plus continued steady growth in our ad-supported plan"
SpaceX
SpaceX on track for $8B rev (2x y/y) on $3B operating profit this year... sheesh
Source Tweet - This Week in Startups
Car
Auto loan rates and car prices have risen significantly. Bank-financed auto loans have not been this high since before the financial crisis. I would expect that the financing challenges will start to make in-roads into car demand for low- and moderate-income consumers
AI
I have never seen anything like the current velocity of AI in 24ish years of following tech.
I thought I might have been optimistic a few months ago thinking that AI generated TV shows and movies were 2-3 years away - nope - they are here now.
This speed argues for caution as an investor in anything but infrastructure - highly uncertain who the ultimate application layer winners will be at this stage.
Absolutely wild: Generative TV & Showrunner Agents
AI Showrunner “creates episodes of South Park for you. Not just the dialogue. It animates, it does the voices, it does the editing…can just generate episodes, or the user can create a prompt and create TV episodes based on a two-sentence prompt.”
“imagine a world where fans can put themselves in their favorite shows, create new episodes and compete to create the best episodes ever made or a world where creators can use the AI Showrunner to make their own original shows.”
From: Fable unveils Showrunner AI to create South Park-like TV shows with you as the star
Analysis Articles
Deribit Insight - ETH Options Volumes Spike On Short Lived Rally
글 잘 봤습니다, 감사합니다.