점 추정(Point estimation)

deejayosamu·2025년 7월 30일

통계 기본 개념

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Method of Moments(MoM) estimator

m^1=m1(θ1,...,θk)\hat{m}_1 = m_1(\theta_1,...,\theta_k) \\ \vdots
m^k=mk(θ1,...,θk)\hat{m}_k = m_k(\theta_1,...,\theta_k)
where m^j=1ni(Xi)j\hat{m}_j = \frac{1}{n}\sum_i (X_i)^j and mj=Eθ(Xj)(j=1,...,k)m_j=E_{\theta}(X^j)(j=1,...,k)
위 연립방정식을 풀어서 나오는 해가 MoM estimator

ex1) X1,...,XniidN(μ,σ2)X_1,...,X_n \overset{iid}{\sim} N(\mu,\sigma^2)
E(X)=μ  =>  μ^=XE(X)=\mu \space \space => \space \space \hat{\mu}=\overline{X}
E(X2)=σ2+μ2  =>  σ^2=X2X2E(X^2)= \sigma^2 + \mu^2 \space \space => \space \space \hat{\sigma}^2 = \overline{X^2} - \overline{X}^2

ex2) X1,...,XniidPoisson(λ)X_1,...,X_n \overset{iid}{\sim} Poisson(\lambda)
λ^=XE(X2)=λ+λ2=X2\hat{\lambda} = \overline{X} \\ E(X^2)= \lambda+\lambda^2 = \overline{X^2}
λ^=X\hat{\lambda} = \overline{X} 이므로 E(X2)=X2+XE(X^2)= \overline{X}^2 + \overline{X} 으로도 표현될 수 있다.
하지만 X2+XX2\overline{X}^2 + \overline{X} \neq \overline{X^2}
=> MoM estimator 는 unique 하지 않다는 문제점이 있다.

Maximum Likelihood Estimator(MLE)

Def)
MLE of θ\theta is the maximizer of L(θ;x)L(\theta;\underline{x})

ex1) X1,...,XniidN(θ,1)X_1,...,X_n \overset{iid}{\sim} N(\theta,1)
mle-ex1

ex2) X1,...,XniidN(θ1,θ2)X_1,...,X_n \overset{iid}{\sim} N(\theta_1,\theta_2)
mle-ex2

ex3) X1,...,XniidU[θ0.5,θ+0.5]X_1,...,X_n \overset{iid}{\sim} U[\theta-0.5,\theta+0.5]
mle-ex3

Theorem) functional invariance of MLE
Let η=g(θ)\eta=g(\theta) be a parameter of interest.
If θ^\hat{\theta} is the MLE of θ\theta, then η^=g(θ)^=g(θ^)\hat{\eta}=\widehat{g(\theta)}=g(\hat{\theta}) is MLE of η\eta

ex1) X1,...,Xniidb(1,p)X_1,...,X_n \overset{iid}{\sim} b(1,p) and η=p1p\eta=\frac{p}{1-p}
MLE of η?\eta?
p^=X  =>  η^=X1X\hat{p} = \overline{X} \space \space => \space \space \hat{\eta}=\frac{\overline{X}}{1-\overline{X}} by functional invariance of MLE

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